英国金融论文代写_英国金融essay范文
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英国金融essay范文
人民币汇率变动对银行股价格影响的实证研究
Abstract 摘要
随着我国对外交流体制改革的不断深化，对外汇市的框架已形成，对外汇率变动对国民经济的影响日益明显，各种金融工具对金融市场价格也有一定的影响，而投资者对外部汇率的变化也越来越重视。股票市场作为资本市场的一个组成部分，具有融资、优化资源配置等作用，对经济发展起着重要作用。一般经济理论所暗示的，股票价格是一个统计的旗帜可以直观的体现一个国家的经济情况，如经济发展阶段，资本的供应和需求，市场状况，以及政治形势的变化行业前景。研究主要集中在人民币汇率与股票价格具有现实意义以及理论的，特别是在人民币升值压力不断增加，股票市场fluctuatingconstantly当前经济形势。股票价格变化的部分原因是由外部的汇率变化引起的关注可以提醒人们思考更多的负面的和可预见的外部变化和股票市场风险的影响，破产，不知何故引起的风险防范意识。With China's external exchange system reform deepening, the external exchange market framework has been formed, external exchange rate changes impact on the national economy has become increasing obvious, of all kinds of financial instruments in financial market prices also has certain influence, and investors are more and more attention to the change of external exchange rate. The stock market as an integral part of capital market, has the effect such as financing, optimizing the allocation of resources, play an important role to the economic development. As general economic theory implies, the price of stock is a statistics banner which can intuitively manifest a country’s economic condition, such as economic development stage, capital supply and demand, market conditions, industry prospect and the change of political situation.The study which focuses on the RMB exchange rate and the stock price therefore has realistic meanings as well as theoretical ones, especially in the current economic situation which the RMB appreciation pressure are increasing and the stock market are fluctuatingconstantly. Theconcern of stock price change that is partly caused by external exchange rate change can remind people to think more about the negative and predictable impacts of external exchange and the risks of stock market bankruptcy, and somehow arouse the risk prevention consciousness.
一般来说，外部交流和内部的股票市场，都有显著的影响，对发展金融市场，甚至对国家的整个经济前景。自上世纪70年代以来，大多数国家都开始采用浮动汇率制度取代固定汇率制度，使外部市场和内部市场相互连接的更加紧密，外部汇率和内部股票市场的联系已成为学者们研究的热点。中国实行的是固定汇率制度和双轨汇率制度前1994。的政策使人民币汇率被美元持续和严格的外汇管制降低连接中国的汇率和股票价格虚。这是2005年7月21日，中国政府进行了汇率制度改革，即浮动汇率制度应运而生。从那时起，人民币汇率开始出现波动，是指市场供求。中国的汇率是机制逐步形成，为我国股权分置改革的继续和金融资本项目逐步放开，外部市场和内部市场开始显示出其相应的作用，它们通过宏观经济变量传导的影响关闭。股票市场的内部和外部市场的互动关系的意识，有利于防范风险，对外交流有助于推动我国的汇率形成机制，保持金融市场和宏观经济的稳定，有很强的现实意义。Generally speaking, theexternal exchange and the internal stock market, both of which have significant influences onthe development of the financial market, even on the national entire economy prospect. Since 1970s, most country began to replace the fixed exchange system by the floating exchange system, making external exchange market and internal stock market attached to each other more tightly.Thestudy of the connection between the external exchange rate and the internal stock market has become a hot spot to the academicians. China implemented a fixed exchange rate system and dual exchange rate system before 1994.The policy made the RMB exchange rate get attached to the US dollar persistently and the strict foreign exchange controls cutthe connection between China's exchange rates and stock prices artificially. It was on July 21st , 2005, the Chinese government had their exchange rate system reformed that the eraof floating exchange rate system came into working. And from then on, the RMB exchange rate began to fluctuate refer to market supply and demand. Mechanism exchange rate in China was then gradually formed and as China's share reform continued and financial capital project gradually got liberalized, theexternal exchange market and internal stock market began to show their corresponding interaction, in which they got closed through the conduction effects of macroeconomic variables. The consciousness of the interactive relationship between the internal stock market and external exchange market is beneficial to the precaution of external exchange risk andwill help promote the formation of China's exchange rate mechanism and maintain financial market and macroeconomic stability, having a strong practical significance.
The basic conclusions of this paper are as the following: a. The exchange rate will affect stock price by international capital, international trade, interest rates, the company's performance, psychological expectations. As the RMB is appreciating, a long-term international capital flow on Chinese stock market and economic development has a positive role. b. when time extends, the connection between external exchange rates and the bank's share price have stable cointegration, in the short run, they both have the bidirectional granger causality. In the long run, when there is appreciation of the RMB, price of bank shares goes up. For a long time, the appreciation of RMB will be beneficial to the development of our commercial bank business, and finally caused commercial Banks' share prices. Between different types of Banks, the RMB external exchange rate shows certain differences on the impact of stock price. Granger causality test results show that the external exchange rate and bank shares are a two-way causal relationship. c. Lag of RMB nominal exchange rate with an inverse relationship between bank stock prices, the empirical results of Error correction model shows that in the short term, the appreciation of the RMB will help stock price to go up, on the other hand, the depreciation of bank shares prices help to fall. d. Exchange rate volatility has a certain impact on the prices of bank shares. Impulse analysis and variance decomposition show that the fluctuation of external exchange rate has nothing to do with the price of banks shares. It does not accord with long term equilibrium condition; it can use the monetary policy in China to explain this phenomenon. When RMB appreciates, in order to prevent economic overheating and inflation, the central bank uses tighten monetary policy in the reverse operation, higher interest rates, which can lead to share price drop. So that in the short term, the currency has cast poison on the bank's share price, the exchange rate for the contribution rate of share price movements showed a trend of increase after decreases contribution rate between 1% and 17%, and there is a long-term and stable effect.
The policy suggestions of this paper are as the following: a. To perfect the exchange system, improve the RMB exchange rate functioning. Release normal to written demand, can eliminate long foreign exchange supply infinite expansion, the negative impact of unlimited increase in external exchange reserves, so as to reduce the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB. b. The government needs to establish capital flow to the dynamic monitoring and early warning mechanism, try to maintain the stable and orderly situation of the domestic financial market. As the RMB appreciating, arbitrage and speculative capital arbitrage frequenting will cause the volatility of the securities market, establish a complete set of domestic securities market on the international capital amount of monitoring and early warning mechanism, effective regulation of the securities market is advantageous to the financial authorities. c. Guide the reasonable expectations. Psychological expectations factors effect on the external exchange market and the internal stock market is becoming more and more obvious, China should increase the degree of information disclosure for ordinary investors and corporate investors, cultivate a correct investment idea, make it to our country foreign exchange market and stock market have an accurate understanding and even the whole economy, and form a reasonable expectations, improve the correlation of the external exchange market and internal stock market. d. Investors should remake their financial strategies, increase of exchange rate volatility risk awareness, reasonable to make investment decisions. e. Bank managers should be quickly identify the fluctuation of foreign exchange risk in a timely and effective manner, to establish the compliance risk prevention system, actively respond to fluctuations and its impact on the bank's share price. Commercial Banks must strengthen the exchange rate risk consciousness, to guard against exchange rate risks on the agenda. Chinese commercial banks should pay attention to the current exchange rate risk, firmly establish a modern bank risk management consciousness, always adhere to the safety, liquidity and profitability of commercial Banks operating principles of organic unity.
Table of Content
Chapter 1 Introduction 8
1.1 Research Background and Purpose 8
1.1.1 Research Background 8
1.1.2 Research Purpose 10
1.2 Research Goal and Content 10
1.3.1 Research Goal 10
1.3.2 Research Content 11
1.4 Research Approach and Methodology 13
1.4.1 Research Approach 13
1.4.2 Research Methodology 14
Chapter 2 Literature Review 14
2.1 Literature review from different scholars for the relationship between exchange rate and stock price/> 2.2 Exchange Rate Determination Theory 20
2.2.1 International Balance of Payments Theory 20
Chapter 3 The Mechanism for the fluctuation of exchange rate for stock price 30
3.1 Relative Concepts 30
3.2 International capital flow 31
3.2.1 Interest Rate 33
3.3 Mundell-Flemming Model 35
Chapter 4 Empirical Study 36
4.1 Data selection and data analysis 36
4.2 Empirical study results and analysis 39
4.2.1 ADF Test 39
4.2.2 Co-integration test 40
4.2.3 Vector Error Correction Model 46
4.3 Empirical Study Results 49
Chapter 5 Conclusion 50
Reference List 54
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